Why Kelly Doran will (well, maybe) be the next governor in Minnesota.
I know it is way too soon to talk about a general election more than a year away, but I have some thoughts on the matter. The reason why I think Kelly Doran can and might win in the end (even against Tim Pawlenty) is because the man is all positives and no negatives. Doran has as much of his own money that he cares to spend, while some laugh at the idea of billboards, it could be an excellent way to at least get his name on people's minds. Money is definitely a plus for Doran. His story is also pretty good too, from being the child of a single mother to a wealthy business developer, he's a self-made man, another plus. What some might call a minus is his lack of political experience could definitely be a plus, especially in a 2006 election. He'll also be one hell of a politician, but I guess you'll all have to wait to see that.
Like it or not, Pawlenty has high negatives and lack-luster support, especially from his GOP base right now. Mike Hatch has or will soon have even higher negatives, and I'm willing to bet he'll lose the DFL endorsement again for the umpteenth time. The DFL has been putting up lousy gubernatorial candidates for long enough, and I agree with Doran that he should either side-step the endorsement process or ignore it and go on through to the primary.
I think that Doran should be doing everything he can to try to channel into the Ventura sentiment among Minnesota voters, and I think that's what he's trying to do right now. He needs to become the moderate outsider with the means to take on Pawlenty. I don't see any other way for the DFL to take back the governor's mansion. I could be dead wrong though, I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Like it or not, Pawlenty has high negatives and lack-luster support, especially from his GOP base right now. Mike Hatch has or will soon have even higher negatives, and I'm willing to bet he'll lose the DFL endorsement again for the umpteenth time. The DFL has been putting up lousy gubernatorial candidates for long enough, and I agree with Doran that he should either side-step the endorsement process or ignore it and go on through to the primary.
I think that Doran should be doing everything he can to try to channel into the Ventura sentiment among Minnesota voters, and I think that's what he's trying to do right now. He needs to become the moderate outsider with the means to take on Pawlenty. I don't see any other way for the DFL to take back the governor's mansion. I could be dead wrong though, I guess we'll have to wait and see.
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I agree with that. He has a much better chance than people give him credit for. His one problem now is a lack of a nitch. Lourey has a nitche within activists and liberals (urban and rural); Kelley has educators; Hatch has a rural, older, and establishment base. Doran needs to define himself in an appealing way to one specific group to make it through the primary.
That being said, Lourey will win the endorsement. Having run 4 years ago she has connections and one look at the 2002 State Convention, anyone would have assumed those delegates would back Becky on the 1st ballot. Then she goes to the primary as the only woman in the race, a huge upside. Plus, the further Pawlenty's numbers fall the easier it will be for any DFLer to beat him. In that case people will be more willing to support the person who alignes most with themselves.
That being said, Lourey will win the endorsement. Having run 4 years ago she has connections and one look at the 2002 State Convention, anyone would have assumed those delegates would back Becky on the 1st ballot. Then she goes to the primary as the only woman in the race, a huge upside. Plus, the further Pawlenty's numbers fall the easier it will be for any DFLer to beat him. In that case people will be more willing to support the person who alignes most with themselves.
I believe Doran really needs to get his act together as far as the way he is running his campaign. Driving home from Duluth last night I noticed that He still has his "Doran for US SENATE" billboards up along I35.
What do you think of Steve Kelly?
What do you think of Steve Kelly?
Andy- "Needs to get his act together." Because of some billboards? Those billboards don't matter at all, except to get his name across people's eyes. Doran has a great staff, a moderate message and the ability to talk to the press well (which few people have). Steve Kelley must have done a very good job cultivating the bloggers because the adulation for him among you people is bizarre. He's a great guy and a great state senator but he just doesn't have that "it" factor. And I disagree wtih mike s that Lourey will get the endorsement. With the people in the race so far, I see little chance that anyone but Hatch will get the endorsement. But don't be surprised to see developments that spur more entrants.
I guess I disagree with all three. With Loury in the race, Hatch is in for the fight of his career and here's why.
The delegates who choose, have not forgotten that Hatch has run against the endorsement 3 times (two for governor and one for AG). Without oppostion he was endorsed and went on to be the top DFL vote getter and the last man we have standing on the statewide level.
Progressives, old liberals, women and EDUCATORS will/are the base of support that Lourey brings to the table. Going for the guy that could 'win' got them Moe last time around and we got Pawlenty. The she can't win talk won't sway them this time. She will be able to also articulate the starkest difference between her and Pawlenty, while Kelly and Hatch play the moderate card. Loury walks right up the middle of Hatch and Kelly and takes the endorsement.
Hatch of course, runs without endorsement (which is why he won't win it at the convention), and you have Lourey, Hatch and Doran in the Primary.
Lourey's base grow with the anti-war movement across the nation (it will be the number one topic in the Senate races across the nation). Hatch and Doran fight out who is more moderate than who, while Becy chugs along with her principled progressive platform.
Doran's money and media saavy trumps Hatch's record and name ID. With Lourey taking a huge chunk of the tradional DFLers, Hatch is stuck with fighting Doran for the swing and moderates. Hatch's name rec also is a bad thing as people already thin favorable or unfavorable of him. Doran pulls that Ventura, swing voter and true moderates, Hatch splits traditional DFL and moderate vote with his opponents and come out third.
Lourey or Doran will squeek out a primary win.
The Republican backlash across the nation will help us deliver a Senator and a Governor Doran or Lourey.
The delegates who choose, have not forgotten that Hatch has run against the endorsement 3 times (two for governor and one for AG). Without oppostion he was endorsed and went on to be the top DFL vote getter and the last man we have standing on the statewide level.
Progressives, old liberals, women and EDUCATORS will/are the base of support that Lourey brings to the table. Going for the guy that could 'win' got them Moe last time around and we got Pawlenty. The she can't win talk won't sway them this time. She will be able to also articulate the starkest difference between her and Pawlenty, while Kelly and Hatch play the moderate card. Loury walks right up the middle of Hatch and Kelly and takes the endorsement.
Hatch of course, runs without endorsement (which is why he won't win it at the convention), and you have Lourey, Hatch and Doran in the Primary.
Lourey's base grow with the anti-war movement across the nation (it will be the number one topic in the Senate races across the nation). Hatch and Doran fight out who is more moderate than who, while Becy chugs along with her principled progressive platform.
Doran's money and media saavy trumps Hatch's record and name ID. With Lourey taking a huge chunk of the tradional DFLers, Hatch is stuck with fighting Doran for the swing and moderates. Hatch's name rec also is a bad thing as people already thin favorable or unfavorable of him. Doran pulls that Ventura, swing voter and true moderates, Hatch splits traditional DFL and moderate vote with his opponents and come out third.
Lourey or Doran will squeek out a primary win.
The Republican backlash across the nation will help us deliver a Senator and a Governor Doran or Lourey.
I wrote the above anonymous statement about Hatch getting the endorsement, which I stand by. But I agree that Doran will end up as the nominee and will beat Pawlenty. If Lourey is the nominee, she will not beat Pawlenty. She's too easily painted (and rightfully so) as a far lefty and that won't work. I like Lourey, and she is good as a legislator, but I really don't think she'd be a good executive.
She's a good executive in the very sucessful business she runs. She is also not easily pinned down as a liberal, which will not be a bad thing to be pinned as next cycle with the ultra low GOP turnout as a result of the GOP ethics problems that include Kennedy and Pawlenty. Becky transends wedge issues; she hunts, has adopted 8 children...
If anything, Hatch lacks the ability to cross-over. He will run the same failed campaign that Humphrey and Moe did before him. Look at who he is already surrounding his campaign with.
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If anything, Hatch lacks the ability to cross-over. He will run the same failed campaign that Humphrey and Moe did before him. Look at who he is already surrounding his campaign with.
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